The application of the LEYP failure forecast model at the strategic asset management planning level

摘要

This paper presents and discusses results of recent research work, which explored and evaluated the use of the LEYP model for failure forecasting at the individual pipe level within the KANEW strategic planning framework. Simulations were carried out with real pipe and break data from a water network in Germany. The results of the simulations showed that the aggregation of covariates for failure forecasting provide good results within short prediction periods whereas failure forecasting for mid to long term periods should consider the differentiated influence of single covariates. Further research is underway to assess the influence of specific rehabilitation programs on the future deterioration of infrastructure networks.