The research on forecasting model of port handling capacity based on conditional expectation

摘要

In order to solve the problem of forecasting port handling capacity exactly, a model based on conditional expectation is proposed. A compound variable, being composed of the number of cargo ships arriving at the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment, is constructed. The port handling capacity is the sum of all compound variables which indicated the cargo throughput each time when cargo ships arrived at the port. Probability distribution of cargo throughput was acquired using throughout probability theory. In view of such a fact, future port handling capacity can be viewed as an conditional mathematic expectation The forecasting model is proposed using growing function. The cargo volume of a port in Shandong province was taken as an example. Theoretical analysis and Case study shows that model based on conditional expectation is better than other model available with respect to forecasting port handling capacity.