Analysis of the Goal of Ejection-decreasing of Sulfur Dioxide in China Based on Dispersed Environmental Kuznets Curve Model

摘要

The coordinated development of economy and environment is the important content to construct the harmonious society. Energy-saving and ejection-decreasing is the main way to better and faster realize the economy development in our country. In this paper, we attempt to establish a dispersed environmental kuznets curve model, and use it to analyze the trend of sulfur dioxide during 11th fiveyear plan. From the result of sensitivity analysis and simulation, we find that, under the expectable economy growth and the capability of realizing energy-saving and ejecting-decreasing, it is quite difficult to realize the environmental goal in China. And the probability of realization of our environmental goal is only 27%. So we need to carry out various policies and technical measures in future to increase the possibility of realizing our environmental goal.