COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS AND EARLY-WARNING PATTERN DESIGN FOR NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY-FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM

摘要

@@Nowadays issue on national energy security has become the subject which Chinese government and the society paid attention highly. Obviously national energy security system has characteristics of multitudinous influence factor,strong relationship between variables and existing mutual game phenomena.Complex adaptive system theory provides a new mentality and points out a new direction for us to analyze this kind of question. Therefore,in view of complexity on national energy security,this paper attempt utilizing important theoretical achievement of complex science-Complex Adaptive System theory-its research concept and analysis method,and study the issue on early-warning of national energy security.Firstly the complexity of national energy security has been analyzed from the perspective of complex adaptive system. Then it has been established the pattern design of national energy security early-warning based on complex adaptive system.In addition,one kind of research tools of CAS-NetLogo-has been introduced.Finally the further research work has been pointed out.