An Evolution Model of Emergency Based on Analysis of Snowstorm in South China

摘要

As the emergency evolutes, its hazard enlarges, such as Snowstorm in south China in Jan. 2008. It is of great significance for early-warning to study the evolution process of Snowstorm. This paper proposes a method to obtain the evolution model of SnowstorM from news reports. Firstly, news reports from special reports of Snowstorm at Sina are selected as a major data source which includes more than 4, 000 pieces of news. Secondly, based on the results of statistics and clustering in which self-organizing map neutral network (SOM) is adopted, we analyze the evolution process of Snowstorm in the viewpoint of time and area. Three key matters of Snowstorm are proposed, and evolution of key matters is depicted through two time indexes. The similarities and differences among different areas are also discussed. The result of this study is useful for early-warning and dealing with similar emergencies.