The Gray Forecast of Mine Safety Production Status Relating Indexes

摘要

Mine safety production status integrated index-death rate per million ton is related to system's other indexes such as mechanized degree of preparation and winning work, safety skill and measure cost, the whole member efficiency, there are internal relations within these indexes, these relations aren't still definite, they are gray relations, they form a gray system. In this paper, using gray relating analysis theory, to set up forecasting model GM (1.n), using Longer-Kutar method to solve numerical value by computer for this system status matrix formula, using data disposal method to find out the relation between dispersed data and time list. Systematic forecast the developing trendsof dynamic process (relating statistical data of past years) that the integrated index of mine safety production status-death rate per million ton and its relating indexes-mechanized degree of preparation and winning work, safety skill and measure cost etc. The forecasting result shows that it is close to the actual situation, forecasting precision is rather ideal. Using gray forecasting method of safety status relating indexes will provide the science basis for mine safety management and safety decision-making.