CHANGE AND VARIABILITY OF FLOODING IN THE OKAVANGO DELTA, BOTSWANA, AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

摘要

The Okavango Delta is an ever-changing dynamic system. A series of factors have been identified that have potential to affect future flooding conditions in the Okavango Delta. These include long and short term climate variability, gemorphological processes leading to shifts in flood distribution as well as greenhouse gas-driven climate change. The changes are inevitable, although their timing and magnitude are uncertain. The current approach for management of the system does not adequately account for possible future changes and their uncertainty.