A Prediction Market System for Aggregating Dispersed Tacit Knowledge into a Continuous Forecasted Demand Distribution

摘要

This research proposes a novel demand forecasting method which will work effectively even in such circumstances where extrapolate-able demand patterns are hardly available. The method uses the market mechanism to aggregate tacit knowledge of the firm's sales people on the future demand of a product into a continuous forecasted demand distribution. In order to make it work, the paper introduces a new type of prediction security and an original market maker algorithm suitable for the security, and furnishes them into an intra-firm prediction market system. As a result, sufficient liquidity is secured for the market even when the number of the traders is small, and the market maker can output at any time an aggregated demand forecast of the traders as a continuous distribution. An agent simulation model, where each trader has the log-utility function, is also developed to show how the method works, how quickly the output distribution converges, etc.