Wells in tight gas reservoirs are often completed with multiple stages of hydraulic fracturing. Eventually, each stage contributes to the commingled well production. This paper presents a stochastic analytic production analysis technique for multistage hydraulically fractured wells*. Based on Bayes’s theorem, the new technique integrates production performance data, production logs, and prior information to arrive at the most probable description of the reservoir/completions. After validating results with a numerical reservoir simulator, we systematically used the new technique to investigate the effect of data availability, i.e. the number of production logs and duration of production period, on the accuracy of the results.
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