Maximization of Major OilGas Project Value at Identification/Access Stage by Reframing of Exploration Strategy

摘要

Conventional approach to project exploration strategy planning at Identification/Access stage is usually focused on hydrocarbon presence confirmation and uncertainties decreasing. Further, at the end of the Appraisal stage, the main purpose is creating successful business case. However, focus on economic value of total project at Identification stage may lead to more optimal exploration program and increasing project EMV. The objective of this case study is to describe specific approach to establish major project exploration strategy at initial stage, based not only on uncertainty decreasing, but also on early business case development and maximizing future economic value. Case study project is framed within license area in the north-eastern part of the Pannonian Basin of Eastern Europe. 2D seismic survey identified 41 structural, structural-tectonic and pinch-out traps. Specific methodology, applied to this project, consists of 3 key steps. At first, full-cycle business case design and calculation were performed. All defined traps were rated by complex geological criteria: geological chance of success, probabilistic STOIIP estimation etc. Then production profiles were estimated for each prospect in accordance with P90, P50, P10 STOIIP outcomes. Preliminary surface facilities concept was developed and tied to expected markets, which were revealed after detailed region investigation and analysis of logistic and transport options. The whole project life cycle CAPEX and OPEX were estimated corresponding to P90, P50, P10 production profiles. Economic value (EMV, J) of each prospect and the whole business case were calculated and allowed to specify initial prospects rating. Next step is optimization calculations, which revealed synergy potential of possible clustering of prospects. At last, total rating of most valuable traps is formed. The most important issue of exploration strategy is not only list of rated options but also timing, sequence of works, geological and non-technical risk estimation. As a result, exploration strategy included 10 traps, optimized 3D seismic and exploration drilling schedule, and key decision to drill exploration wells for the specific traps without 3D seismic. Preliminary optimal facilities concept was revealed as placement of 5 wells per separate platform with integrated oil preparation facilities and in-house energy generation.