The project schedule management model based on the program evaluation and review technique and Bayesian networks

摘要

Based on the analysis of program evaluation and review technique (PERT) and bayesian network, a PERT bayesian network (PERTBN) is built according to the basic requirement of project schedule management. Fistly, a basic model of PERTBN is established, and the node types and the simplifying method of the model are detailed. Secondly, based on the three process arrangement modes of single-chain, centralized and distributed types, the corresponding PERTBN modeling methodology is put forward respectively. Subject to the time sequence dependence of the immediate predecessor nodes and the immediate successor nodes, the calculation methods of the conditional probability distribution of each node are determined. At last, with the analysis of the basic attribute and features of PERTBN, the applicable future in the combination of PERT and bayesian network in the project schedule management is shown.