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Disasters and decision processes

机译:灾害和决策过程

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One of the most important topics in hazard and disaster related research is the effective reduction of vulnerability. Despite the fact that our knowledge about several physical and human dimensions of disasters has grown rapidly in recent decades, there is ample evidence that casualties and damages due to natural disasters have grown even faster. Apparently, there is no such formula like 'more data = better knowledge = less casualties and damages'. Purpose of this paper is the identification of some potential reasons for this obvious dilemma. After briefly addressing selected social science concepts of hazards, disasters, and risks, it is argued that good research leads to - scientifically - good models and predictions, but not necessarily to 'good' decision-making meant to reduce vulnerability to hazards. Both physical and human factors need to be brought together. Furthermore, research should focus on those most vulnerable to hazards and disasters as real target beneficiaries. The identification of practical ways to enable decision makers to make more sense of information will belong to the fundamental challenges of future hazard research.
机译:危害和灾害相关研究中最重要的主题之一是有效减少脆弱性。尽管我们对近几十年来的灾害的几个物理和人类方面的知识已经迅速增长,但有充足的证据证明了由于自然灾害导致的伤亡和损害甚至更快地增长。显然,没有这样的公式,如“更多数据=更好的知识=少伤亡和损害赔偿”。本文的目的是鉴定这种明显困境的一些潜在原因。在简要介绍选定的社会科学危险,灾害和风险的概念之后,有人认为良好的研究导致科学 - 良好的模型和预测,但不一定是“良好”的决策,意味着减少危害的脆弱性。身体和人为因素都需要聚集在一起。此外,研究应专注于最容易受到危害和灾害作为真实目标受益人的人。确定能够使决策者能够更具资料感的实践方法将属于未来危害研究的基本挑战。

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