Epidemic Propagation of West Nile Virus Using a Multi-Agent Geo-Simulation under Various Short-term Climate Scenarios

摘要

In this paper we show how multi-agent geo-simulation can provide a useful approach to simulate the propagation of epidemics and to support intervention strategies. Using such an approach we developed a system that can plausibly simulate the interactions of mosquitoes (Culex sp.) and birds (American Crows) in the context of the spread and transmission of the West Nile virus (WNV). This simulation takes place in a geo-referenced virtual environment representing a large territory (Southern part of Quebec) in which a user can explore various climate change scenarios and the effects of different measures to control the disease vectors such as the spreading of larvicides. The paper shows how we simulated the spatio-temporal interactions of large populations of mosquitoes and crows and took advantage of a mathematical compartment model simulating the populations' dynamics. We developed an operational prototype and calibrated it. This system can be used to support short term decision-making related to WNV vector control measures.