Using “Fast Models” for Selecting the Right Decision—A Norwegian North Sea Case Study

摘要

The Alvheim field is located offshore Norway and consists of several oil and gas discoveries which contains hydrocarbons in good quality Paleocene sandstones. In the early phases of the development the in-place oil and gas volumes were to a large degree uncertain. Nevertheless, the partners needed to work on the concept selection issues. The model described in the paper includes a tool for displaying important upside potential seen in geological and geophysical evaluations and parametric model for the production profiles. This results in a “fast model” that could be applied as part of a Monte Carlo model handling all essential elements in the cash flow for various field development concepts. One of the challenges was to make a model that realistically accounted for the information we knew would appear during production. This was solved using an optimizing inside the Monte Carlo simulation. The developed model proved useful. Running the model would quickly give comparable economic figures for various concepts. The upside potential and risk associated could also be studied. Another important property of the model was the ability to incorporate the results of the appraisal wells and narrow the uncertainty range in the modeling as soon as the information became available.