We present an analytical model evaluating the suitability of optical absorption based spectroscopic techniques for detection of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) and toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) in ambient air. The sensor performance is modeled by simulating absorption spectra of a sample containing both the target and multitude of interfering species as well as an appropriate stochastic noise and determining the target concentrations from the simulated spectra via a least square fit (LSF) algorithm. The distribution of the LSF target concentrations determines the sensor sensitivity, probability of false positives (PFP) and probability of false negatives (PFN). The model was applied to CO_2 laser based photoacosutic (L-PAS) CWA sensor and predicted single digit ppb sensitivity with very low PFP rates in the presence of significant amount of interferences. This approach will be useful for assessing sensor performance by developers and users alike; it also provides methodology for inter-comparison of different sensing technologies.
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