New Estimates Of The PMF At Selected Dam Sites In SW England

摘要

All category A dams in the United Kingdom must have their spillway capable of safely passing the probable maximum flood (PMF). The PMF is estimated using estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and a runoff model which converts the rainfall intto runoff. New estimates of PMP have now been published and they are about 1.6 times greater than the existing estimates. When they are used in conjunction with soil hydraulic conductivity data and the UH (unit hydrograph) model the resulting PMF at several dam sites in SW England is from 1.5 to 3.0 times greater than the spillway design flood. This result implies that without the effects of any future climate change to; warmer and wetter conditions, dam spillways in the United Kingdom are seriously underdesigned.