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TeCSMART: A New Framework for Modeling and Analyzing Systemic Risk in Socio-technical Systems

机译:Tecsmart:一个新的建模和分析社会技术系统风险的新框架

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Recent systemic failures such as the subprime financial crisis, BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster, and the Northeast Blackout have reminded us, once again, the large-scale risks in complex socio-technical systems. While these are different disasters that happened in different domains, at different facilities, triggered by different events, involve different materials, etc., there are, however, certain common underlying patterns behind such systemic failures. These patterns teach us important fundamental lessons that we had better learn to avoid future disasters. To understand these patterns and learn from them, we need to go beyond analyzing them as independent one-off accidents but in the broader perspective of the potential fragility of all complex engineered systems. We need to study all these disasters from a common systems engineering perspective so that we can thoroughly understand the commonalities as well as the differences in order to better design and control such systems in the future.
机译:最近的全身失败,如次次次次金融危机,BP深水地平线漏油灾难,而东北停电已经提醒我们,再次在复杂的社会技术系统中的大规模风险。虽然这些是在不同域中发生的不同灾害,但在不同的设施,由不同事件引发的不同的设施,涉及不同的材料等,然而,这种系统失败背后存在某些共同的潜在模式。这些模式教导了我们重要的基本课程,我们更好地学会避免未来的灾害。要了解这些模式并向他们汲取学习,我们需要超越分析它们作为独立的一次性事故,但在更广泛的所有复杂工程系统的潜在脆弱性的观点中。我们需要从共同的系统工程角度研究所有这些灾难,以便我们能够彻底了解共性以及更好地设计和控制这些系统的差异。

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