Probabilistic assessment of interregional available transfer capability for renewable energy transactions

摘要

This paper investigates a probabilistic assessment method for calculating interregional available transfer capability (ATC) in renewable energy transactions based on randomness and correlation of renewable energy. Firstly, the discrete joint probability model is established to consider wind power correlation based on wind speed data of multiple wind farms. Then the nonsequential Monte Carlo method is implemented to determine the evaluation state of numerous uncertainty factors such as load fluctuations, equipment availabilities. As the assessment of ATC is susceptible to adjustment strategy of generator output, the paper analyzes practical power adjustment strategies. An accelerated algorithm of mixed evaluation strategy is proposed based on sensitivity and optimization adjustment according to the changes of network configuration, which compromises the calculation speed and accuracy. The IEEE-RTS results verify the effectiveness of the improved model and the proposed method.