A model for analyzing transaction price volatility of generation rights trade market based on cellular automata and complex network theories

摘要

For the researches on the relationship between the influence factors of the generation rights transaction price and the price volatility are very few, the effects of individual behavior on the price volatility of generation rights trade market are studied in this paper based on cellular automata (CA) and complex networks (CN) theories. Firstly, the CA model of generation rights trade market is proposed. Then, the behavior model of the generation rights trader forecasting the coal price trends is constructed based on CN theory. At last, depending on the above two models, combining the transformation rules of generation rights trade CA with the behavior model, the model for analyzing the price volatility of generation rights trade market is established. The simulation results show that the individual behavior is an important factor of causing price volatility of generation rights trade market. It is verified that the relationship between the individual behavior and the price volatility of generation rights trade market can be depicted clearly by the proposed model, and it provides a new method for constructing the model of influence factors of power generation rights trade market by complex system theories.