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Probability analysis method in economic evaluationn of hydropower

机译:水电经济评价概率分析方法

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摘要

There are many uncertain factors in economic analysis of hydropower project, of which the most important are annual energy generation and project cost. The method of probability analysis on above two factors and its effect on economic indices is proposed in this paper. The given example has proved that this method is feasible and practicable. Seeing that uncertainty of annual energy generation is objective and could be analyzed based on hydroenergy calculation result, it is suggested that effect of annual energy generation on economic evaluation indices be carried out in economic evaluation of hydropower project.
机译:水电项目经济分析中有许多不确定因素,其中最重要的是年能源和项目成本。本文提出了高于两个因素的概率分析方法及其对经济指标的影响。给出的例子证明了这种方法是可行和切实可行的。看到年度能源产生的不确定性是客观的,并且可以根据水力资料计算结果分析,建议年度能源发电对水电项目经济评估进行经济评估指标的影响。

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