Research on Multi-scale Highway Risk Prediction and Assessment in China

摘要

Highway flood risk assessment research is one of the current hotspots and difficulties in the field of natural disaster research, and it is also an important basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning and management. The research analyzes the basic system of highway flood risk assessment from the aspects of basic concepts, influencing factors, and assessment contents of highway floods, and uses different methods to analyze the flood danger level from three dimensions: grid unit, small watershed unit, and town-level administrative unit. Combining qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment methods, the risk of highway floods at different spatial scales is evaluated, and the expected loss risk of highway floods in Banan District is estimated. The research shows that: (1) The grid can be used as a research unit to effectively explore the differences in the risk distribution within the study area due to its high data accuracy and complete sample information, it is suitable to use a neural network model for evaluation. (2) Based on the risk assessment at the small watershed scale, it is found that Banan District is mainly composed of low-risk and low-risk areas. The use of small watersheds as a research unit can reflect the spatial integrity of the impact factors of highway floods. The results It can provide decision support for river basin disaster management and prevention. (3) Based on the township-scale highway flood risk assessment, the township administrative unit is selected to analyze the flood danger levels of each town (street), which can meet the needs of management decision-making. Selecting different scales for risk assessment analysis can provide a scientific basis for the formulation, implementation, and allocation of disaster reduction resources for regional disaster management measures.