Evaluation and Forecasting of Functional Port Technical Efficiency in ASEAN-4

摘要

The huge challenge for measuring and forecasting port efficiencies was one of the major concerns in logistics economics. This paper was aimed to deeply study the univariate calculation for the technical efficiency ratio in six major ports in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The annual time-series data from 2005 to 2018 was observed, including container flows, numbers of vessel arrivals, transshipments, the ranges of quay lengths, and the units of functional terminals. Observed data were categorized to be a panel. Two econometric methods such as Bootstrapping Panel Data Envelopment Analysis (BPDEA) and Bayesian Structural Time-Series Forecasting model (BSTSF) were applied for clarifying and predicting ports' bias-corrected technical efficiency ratio. The findings were used to recommend a specific policy for the uniqueness of port locational bearings.