Collision Risk Analysis of Chittagong Port in Bangladesh by Using Collision Frequency Calculation Models with Modified BBN Model

摘要

An updated accident database with 789 overall waterway accidents from 1981-2013 at Chittagong Port (CP) in Bangladesh shows around 48% accidents were collision. In this paper, collision risk in CP is analyzed by constructing collision frequency calculation models that are solved using IWRAP Mk2, software for maritime risk assessment modelling. Causation Probability is evaluated by a localized Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model on HUGIN Researcher software and used as a direct input of IWRAP Mk2. Suggestion about modification of BBN model’s output is given based on sensitivity analysis followed by an assessment of influence of a newly installed Risk Control Option (RCO) i.e., Vessel Traffic and Management Information System (VTMIS) on probability of collision. The validity of the developed model is shown by comparing between predicted collision probability and historical data. Close proximity between the database data and obtained value has been found regarding collision frequency, vessel types in collision accident, accident prone zones etc. that can be used as a reference for future decision making on safety standard upgrade of CP. Such analysis can be carried out on different ports and channels worldwide to calculate collision risk and ensure safety.