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Bayesian Multi-Source Modeling with Legacy Data

机译:贝叶斯多源建模与传统数据

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As the complexity of engineering systems increases, the cost of computer simulations, experimentation and physical tests for design and development also gets expensive. Due to the significant resources required by these physical and computational experiments on a new design, only sparse data are generally available and are often not sufficient enough to build accurate meta-models. A common approach to reduce the cost and the time cycle of a design process is to use meta-modeling techniques to build simpler and faster mathematical models to carry out the decision-making process for a new design. If datasets are available from legacy systems which belong to a similar family as the new design, one can leverage that information and knowledge to improve the accuracy of models built for the new system. In this work, a Bayesian multi-source modeling technique has been developed which combines models built on data from legacy systems with sparse data for a new design to improve the predictive capability of meta-model for the new design.
机译:随着工程系统的复杂性增加,计算机模拟的成本,设计和开发的实验和物理测试也变得昂贵。由于这些物理和计算实验对新设计所需的重要资源,通常仅提供稀疏数据,并且通常不足以建立准确的元模型。降低设计过程的成本和时间周期的一种常见方法是使用元建模技术来构建更简单和更快的数学模型,以执行新设计的决策过程。如果数据集可从属于类似家庭作为新设计的传统系统中获得,则可以利用该信息和知识来提高为新系统构建的模型的准确性。在这项工作中,已经开发了一种贝叶斯多源建模技术,它结合了在具有稀疏数据的传统系统上构建的模型,以提高新设计元模型的预测能力。

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