Exploratory Risk Block Estimate: The Case of Brazilian Auctions

摘要

The objective of this work is to better understand auctions of rights oil exploration in Brazil, looking at how certain variables affect the mean and variance of profits that firms expect to obtain by purchasing the right of exploit an exploratory block of oil and gas in Brazil . The methodology used is a regression analysis based on the theory of auctions, as presented in Rezende (2008). Thus, it is possible to estimate the average of these values. This is based on data from the bids offered in the auctions of the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) (rounds 1 to 10, from 1998 to 2008). The results indicate important and positive role in oil prices in the year of the auction and the amount of seismic publicly available on the valuation and submitted bids for the auctioned areas.