RAIN FORECASTER—A SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING TOOL

摘要

LIKE most agricultural industries, the Australian sugar industry is exposed to the elements of the climate. Knowing if the season ahead is likely to be wetter or drier can assist industry decision makers plan for the future. RAIN FORECASTER is a computer program that can forecast rainfall and wet days using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and anomalies in sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region which forms part of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. RAIN FORECASTER also incorporates the long lead forecasting model developed by Florida State University (FSU). The Florida State University model allows industry to assess early in the year (e.g. January, February) if there is likely to be a wet finish to the harvest season. Whilst RAIN FORECASTER can be used as an operational prediction tool, it is also a learning tool that can be used to understand how climate indices influence rainfall patterns. For example, by experimenting with RAIN FORECASTER, three key rules emerge commonto most sugarcane growing regions located along the eastern coast of Australia. These rules are: (i) consistently positive SOI phases and/or negative Nino 3.4 anomalies (La Nina) during the harvest season favour wetter harvest conditions; (ii) consistently negative SOI phases and/or positive Nino 3.4 anomalies (El Nino) during the harvest season favour drier harvest conditions, and (iii) La Nina projections for the harvest season made by the FSU model early in the year, increase the risk of a wetter finish to the harvest. RAIN FORECASTER can be used for forecasting conditions outside the harvest season, but different results may appear for different regions. RAIN FORECASTER is a simple tool that provides an excellent basis for exploring how climate conditions are influenced by variations in atmospheric and oceanic conditions.