The structural integrity of aircraft has become a critical issue in ensuring the combat readiness of aging aircraft and in the need for more efficient use and maintenance of critical assets. In order to address this need, a science-based approach is being taken for the development of a Structural Integrity Prognosis System (SIPS). This system is designed to provide near-term predictions of the structural integrity of individual assets and is based on a collaboration between detailed models of fatigue damage, aircraft history and usage data, sensor systems, and a unique reasoning system designed to provide a probabilistic prediction of structural viability under a variety of future use scenarios. The modeling and simulation systems are founded on detailed physical models of the fatigue and corrosion degradation processes. These physical mechanisms are being incorporated into computer code that permits prediction of the current state of damage and of the evolution of damage with expected usage. The sensor systems range from sensitive laboratory devices that are unsuitable for deployment but useful for model calibration, on to hardened, deployable sensor systems. Use is also made of information from the vehicle tracking systems. Data from the sensors and predictions from the models are combined in a reasoning and prognosis system that takes into account the uncertainties in the models, sensors, and usage data. Combining all of these data using unique algorithms results in near-term predictions of structural viability, suitable for use in deployment decisions.
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