INTEGRATED NUMERICAL METHODS FOR PREDICTING INDOOR CASUALTIES DURING CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TERRORIST ATTACKS

摘要

The recent occurrences of global chemical and biological terrorism have posed a grave threat to the safety of indoor occupants. The accurate prediction of casualties is of great importance for analyzing the aftermath of such incidents and taking effective countermeasures. This paper presents a numerical method integrated with four kinds of models, which are used to predict the distribution of occupant and contaminant indoors, exposure dose and casualties respectively. Six cases are studied numerically to demonstrate how to integrate various models effectively for predicting casualties. The results suggest that the present method could estimate indoor casualties with reasonable accuracy. For practical application, the proposed method may be employed in areas such as risk assessment and control, establishment of anti-terrorism measures and safety design of indoor environment.