Interplay Between Endogenous and Exogenous Factors in Controlling Temporal Abundance Patterns of Tropical Disease-carrying Mosquito

摘要

The growing quest for efficient and effective mosquito control requires a better understanding of vector population dynamics and how these are modified by endogenous and exogenous factors. A long-term (11-year) monitoring dataset describing the relative abundance of the saltmarsh mosquito {Aedes vigilax) in the greater Darwin region, northern Australia were examined in a suite of Gompertz-logistic (GL) models with and without hypothesized environmental correlates (high tide frequency, rainfall and relatively humidity). We also examined whether environmental correlates explained the variance in seasonal carrying capacity (K). Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Inference Criterion (BIC) and jack-knifed cross-validation (C-V). The GL model with a two-month lag without environmental effects explained 31 % of the variation inpopulation growth rate.