Study on the Risk Analysis Method of the Flood Forecast System Based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy

摘要

Several risk analysis methods of the flood forecast system and their disadvantages are introduced briefly in this paper, then the principle of maximum entropy (POME) applied in risk analysis is presented. The risk analysis model of the flood forecast system based on POME and the solution of this model are established. In the end, take the Huanren Reservoir for example, the risk rate of its flood forecast system is calculated and compared with the risk rate calculated by the JC method. As can be seen from the comparison, using the POME method to calculate the risk rate of the flood forecast system is feasible and practicable.