In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning may considerably alter strategies and agricultural policies to achieve robust outcomes with regard to factors such as environmental impacts, probability and severity of disease outbreaks, agricultural input levels and management, composition of farms, or trade relations. We discuss production planning models under uncertainties and risks that may assist in planning location-specific production expansion within environmental and health risk indicators and constraints. The proposed approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially-explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.
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