MADE IN CHINA, a 'GREAT LEAP FORWARD'? - A VISION FOR PV IN CHINA

摘要

The growth of PV in the past few years in China can not be neglected. China now has a claimed installed capacity of 58 MW{sub}p, which places China fifth in the world PV league (behind Japan, Germany, USA and India), and with a target of 450 MW{sub}p by 2010. Chinese PV installations are now expanding at a rate of more that 50%/year. PV module production capacity is reported to exceed 50 MW{sub}p/year, an increase from less than 10MWp in 1999. Participants in the 19th EPVSEC in Paris may have noted that there were few papers from China, but the Chinese PV industry dominated the exhibition. The 'Great Leap Forward' in China will have a potentially profound impact on the world PV market and industry. The Chinese government has put renewable energy development at the top of its political agenda, in response to the country's recent electricity supply crisis in major cities and its severe environmental problems. China's renewable energy promotion law is under preparation and the 'Brightness Programme' has been the largest and most prompt PV village power programme in the world, which added 20 MW{sub}p of PV systems in just one year. China's fast growing economy and its still extremely low labour cost, as well as the 'artificially undervalued' currency, has made the country important to the world economy and attractive for foreign investment. However, it is still considered as one of the most complicated markets in the world with ambiguous policies toward foreign companies. While the world PV industry grows at 30%/year, a vision of the future Chinese PV market and its related policies is important for the global PV industry. The paper presents a detailed analysis and projection on the Chinese PV policies and markets, based on systematic research and interviews with key players. From the author's research experience on China's economic and environmental related issues, China's is a country where 'miracles can happen overnight', if driven by ambitious short-term government policies. However, it might sound cynical to say most of the 'movements' have ended with chaos, but certainly the situation can be described as 'unstable'. The unique situation of the Chinese PV market presents both opportunities and challenges to the World. The paper also provides suggestions for the European PV industry on how to address the potential opportunities and risks in China.