Energy centers of the climate system and their connection with ecological risk domains

摘要

Problems of ecological risks and vulnerability of territories with respect to human induced effects stand on the intersection of the fields and interests of climatic and ecological studies. The purpose of this paper is to lay the concept on interconnections between energetically active regions in the climatic system and zones of increased ecological risks as well as to describe the mathematical background that we develop for realization of the concept. The studies are fulfilled on the base of a joint use of the models and measured data. To calculate the influence domains of thermodynamic factors and the regions of ecological risk the numerical models of atmospheric hydrodynamics and pollutants transport are used in forward and inverse modes. The system organization of the approach are based on the combination of numerical tools, namely, orthogonal decomposition of function spaces, factor analysis and selection of the main components and factors, sensitivity methods with respect to the parameter perturbations for the models and functionals, and forward and inverse techniques with data assimilation procedures. The results of the modeling scenarios with global atmospheric models with the use of NCEP reanalysis data for 53 years are presented.