WIND FARM OUTPUT VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

摘要

At present, there is one fully operational wind farm generating electricity in South Australia, with capacity of 34.5 MW. There are several wind farms under construction at 5 sites, which will bring the total capacity to 400 MW. There are numerous proposed wind farms, which will eventually take the installed capacity up to 1000 MW at 6 sites. We need to estimate the total output variability of the wind farms over three time intervals. The variability at the 3 second time interval can affect the stability of the network. Variability at the 5 minute time interval can affect the market mechanisms since in Australia dispatch is at 5 minute intervals. Also, variability on a half hour time scale is critical since peaking plant still needs about that amount of time to ramp up. In this paper, we use correlative coherence analysis and methods of adding variables following a gamma distribution in order to estimate the total variability of wind farms of varying size at different locations.