A new method for calculating the failure probability of structures containing defects - an advanced random simulation method

摘要

An advanced random simulation method for calculating the failure probability of welded structures is put forward in the paper and some drawbacks are overcome both in the analytic method and in Monte Carlo method. The effect of secondary stress (such as welded residual stress) on the structural reliability is also taken into consider. The expression for computing the failure probability by the advanced random simulation method is derived. It can be shown from the engineering case that both the simulation times and the simulation work are reduced, and a good foundation is set up for carrying out the probability safety assessment (PSA) of the welded structures containing defects.