Building Vulnerability Assessment based on Cloud model

摘要

This study aims at building a general framework for estimating building vulnerability to blast-fragmentation warhead of a missile. Considering the fuzziness and randomness existing in the damage criterion rules, cloud models are applied to represent the qualitative concepts. On the basis of building geometric description, element criticality analysis, blast wave and fragment movement description, and meeting analysis of fragments and target, kill probabilities of the components are estimated by the shot line method. The damage state of the whole building given the threat is obtained by cloud model based uncertainty reasoning and the proposed similarity measure, enabling both randomness of probability reasoning and the fuzziness of the traditional fuzzy logic to be considered. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide useful reference for optimizing warhead design and mission efficiency evaluation.