Manufacturing and lifecycle costs of battery electric vehicles, direct-hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and direct-methanol fuel cell vehicles

摘要

In this study, potential vehicle manufacturing costs, lifecycle costs, infrastructure support costs, and emission-related costs are compared for three potential zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technology development and deployment scenarios. These scenarios include production of mid-sized battery electric vehicles, direct-hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and direct methanol fuel cell vehicles from 2003 to 2026, and operation of the vehicles in California's South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) from 2003 to 2043. The study focuses on potential manufacturing cost reductions for electric motors, motor controllers, battery systems, hydrogen storage tanks, and fuel cell systems, due to the combined forces of production scale economies and technological progress. Vehicle manufacturing and lifecycle costs are calculated by integrating vehicle component cost functions with a detailed vehicle performance and cost spreadsheet model. Fleet-level costs for vehicle operation, infrastructure development, and criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions are calculated using a MATLAB/Simulink model developed by the author. In this regional-scale, fleet-level model, fuzzy set theory is used to characterize uncertainty in key input variables, and to propagate uncertainty through the calculation of vehicle, infrastructure, and emissions costs.