Economic modelling with fuzzy logic

摘要

In this paper we demonstrate that a modelling strategy based on the application of fuzzy logic provides a powerful and efficient method for the estimation of non-linear and linear economic relationships. The procedure is particularly suitable for the estimation of ill-defined systems in which there is considerable uncertainly about the nature and range of key input variables and the underlying relationships of the model. To illustrate the potential benefits of the fuzzy logic approach, we use it to model the behaviour of the real wage in the United States over the period 1960-1995. The results suggest that the relationships in the model are robust and basically nonlinear.