Vulnerability assessment: target kill probability evalaution when components' kill (or degradation) cannot be considered independent events

摘要

Calculation of kill probabilities in vulnerability assessment is often carried out assuming that the events of component kill are independent. However, this is rather the exception than the rule. A projectile that perforates a shield can cause damage to several vital components behind the shield. Thus, kills of components are not independent events. It is normally possible to estimate the kill probability for any component, for instance when impacted by a projectile or shield fragment. It is however impossible to estimate all the conditional probabilities that are required to calculate the kill probabilities of some target ability, such as a tank's "mobility". A rational way to treat this problem is to use Monte Carlo simulation throughout. This way of calculating probabilities for changes in abilities of complex targets in comat is used in the new Swedish computer program LIBRA for assessment of effects and vulnerability for land-, and airborne vehicles.