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Envisioning and probing the model for policy learning and scenario planning

机译:设想和探讨政策学习与场景规划模型

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This paper describes the process of a combined system dynamics modeling and scenario planning approach. It empirically investigates how envisioning and probing system dynamic modeling has the potential to raise effectiveness of scenario planning for organizational learning and improved decision making. The approach is illustrated by means of a case study that was used to explore the influence of social trends on dynamic interactions between transport behavior and spatial development in Switzerland. In this case study a system dynamics model was developed that served as a communication tool for strategy development and for enhancing goal alignment between different policy sectors at the national level. A qualitative content analysis illustrates how comments from participants of group modeling workshops can be opened up as empirical indicators of stimuli for improved learning. Additionally, it gives empirical evidence that the chosen approach contributes to mitigating four drivers of unexpected decision failure as discriminated by Chermack (2004a): bounded rationality, the tendency to consider only exogenous variables, stickiness and friction of information and knowledge, and mental model with decision premises.
机译:本文介绍了组合系统动力学建模和场景规划方法的过程。它经验研究了设想和探测系统的动态建模如何有可能提高组织学习和改进决策的情景规划的有效性。该方法通过案例研究来说明,用于探讨社会趋势对瑞士运输行为与空间发展之间的动态相互作用的影响。在这种情况下,研究了系统动态模型,该模型作为战略开发的通信工具,用于加强国家层面的不同政策部门之间的目标对齐。定性内容分析说明了组织建模研讨会参与者的评论如何作为改进学习的刺激的实证指标开放。此外,它还提供了所选择的方法,即选择的方法有助于减轻四个意外决定失败的驱动因素,因为Chermack(2004A):有界合理性,倾向于仅考虑外源性变量,粘性和信息和知识的摩擦,以及心理模型决策场所。

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