Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation into National Development Planning - A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

摘要

Small islands developing States (SIDS) are recognized as a special case in the United Nations system as a special case because of their inherent vulnerabilities, including, among others, external shocks. These shocks can take different forms such as volatility in energy prices, global financial and economic crisis, natural disasters, and climate change. It is also recognized today that while SIDS are vulnerable because of their inherent characteristics, policies can be tailored to enhance their resilience in the face of these shocks. These policies should also have sustainable development dividends or social, environmental and economic co-benefits. In this paper, we deal primarily with the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and 'loss and damage' into national development planning. A framework for carrying out this integration is proposed. Using the island of Mauritius as a case study, system dynamics modelling is applied to operationalize the framework. The impacts and policy responses corresponding to the reduction in precipitation from climate change, and extreme precipitation events arising from climate variability are simulated for the agriculture sector. By adopting a more conceptual approach, the cross-sectoral impacts of cyclones are simulated stochastically. All simulations have been carried out over the 2050 time horizon.