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A practical approach to expert elicitation for Bayesian reliability analysis of aging

机译:衰老贝叶斯可靠性分析专家专家专家诱导的实用方法

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In 1998, EDF (Electricite de France) and INRIA worked in partnership to develop a practical approach to elicitation from expert's opinions, suitable for supplying quantitative information within the framework of a Bayesian Reliabily Analysis (BRA) of component subjected to aging. The paper presents and illustrates the main results of this cooperation and shows its usefulness in a test case. The approach is intended to form part of a BRA in which the expert provides subjective information to complement a small amount of objective data (feedback experience). The difficulty is to translate expert's opinions into "prior" information on model's parameters (Weibull in the case of aging). The mix between the two information sources contains all available information about the event and can be used to evaluate the reliability for an aging component.
机译:1998年,EDF(德国电器)和inria在合作伙伴关系中致力于开发专家意见的实用方法,适用于在经过老化的组分的贝叶斯密封性分析(文胸)框架内提供定量信息。本文提出并说明了这一合作的主要结果,并在考验案例中显示了其有用性。该方法旨在构成一个文胸的一部分,其中专家提供主观信息以补充少量客观数据(反馈经验)。难度是将专家的意见翻译成“先前”信息的模型参数信息(在老化的情况下Weibull)。两个信息源之间的混合包含有关该事件的所有可用信息,可用于评估老化组件的可靠性。

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