A contribution to modelling and computation in the reliability of electric power generating systems

摘要

We present a modelling of load curves through mixtures of normal distributions and a procedure for reducign computation times when obtaining power system reliability indicators. We show some results where it is clear that the approximation of forthnight demand curves by a mixture of two normals leads to values of the LOLE index similar to those obtained through the original demand curves. The computation time reduction procedure we propose replaces a more conventional algorithm when using Esscher's large deviation technique. It is based on the application of random field models to the prediction of deterministic functions and it leads to a reduction of about 75