How essons learned from Benchmark Exercises Can Improve the Quality of Risk Studies

摘要

Whereas Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) aims at the modelling of stochastic uncertainties associated with the occurrence and circumstances of a major accident, the process itself of carrying out a QRA is linked with several uncertainties, as well. For the implementation of the risk assessment procedure a variety of techniques and models must be used, and uncertainties are introducted due to imperfect knowledge and expert judgement. As QRA is used as an input in many decisions related to the control of major accident hazards and the need for accuracy in the results increases, the adequate management of these uncertainties gains increased importance.