The automotive industry faces major, even disruptive, changes. The public perceptionof the automobile has evolved a strong focus on environmentally sustainabledrivetrains. Until 2030, the EU legislation foresees a fleet CO_2 reduction by 37.5 % fornew passenger car registrations [1]. To achieve these ambitious values, most OEManticipate a significant share of pure battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in-hybridvehicles (PHEV).This approach shows significant risks: On the customer side, acceptance of BEV andPHEV may be lower than required, either driven by higher pricing (compared to conventionalvehicles), limitations of the infrastructure, insufficient range or reduced usabilityas shown by 2019's sales share (~3 % in Germany). On manufacturer's side,market supply might be the bottleneck. Sales may be limited by the delivery of criticalcomponents (e.g. batteries) or simply due to available production capacity of BEV andPHEV at a certain OEM. Additional uncertainties lie in the certification of PHEV vehiclesby the European government. Currently, PHEV benefit from a utility factor basedreduction for CO_2 emission certification depending on the electric range. This approachtakes into account the low tank-to-wheel CO_2 emissions of PHEV vehicles in chargedepletion mode. A future technology neutral legislation might change this, since manycustomers make limited use of the plug-in functionality and use their PHEV similar toa conventional vehicle, leading to real world fuel consumption higher than certified.Legislation changes might also take into account well-to-wheel or even life-cycle assessment(LCA) based emission evaluation.In this paper, a step-by-step analysis of the losses of a modern xHEV vehicle is performed.By reduction of various vehicle losses and optimization of the powertrain includingthe hybrid concept as well as single components (ICE, battery, inverter,transmission etc.), a road to 59 gCO_2/km (without plug-in functionalities) will be presented.Together with a reasonable share of BEV and PHEV, this approach could enableeven 50 % CO_2 emission reduction in 2030.
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