Community Reorganization Response to Climate Change: Species Interactions, State-Space Modeling and Food Webs

摘要

Based on the data collected on the taxonomically diverse communities monitored in NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network), BBS (Breeding Bird Survey) and FIA (Forest Inventory & Analysis), we have forecasted community change and reorganization resulting from climate change across the coterminous USA. Predictive sensitivity analysis under climate change anticipates community reorganization and the habitats that will be most critical for new species assemblages. Our new semi-automated platform (pbgjam.org) enables revised forecasts as updated climate, remote sensing and biodiversity data come available. Our future work will build upon this modeling and platform by developing a dynamic, bio-physical framework to quantify the environment-species interactions that structure ecological communities and determine how they respond to environmental change.