Natural Gas Pipeline Failure Risk Prediction and Relation Analysis by Combining Rough-AHP and Rough DEMATEL Method

摘要

The main purpose of this research is to identify the most crucial factors, accordingly improve the security management and reduce the potential failure risks. In our daily life, natural gas is widely used for manufacturing industry and household activities such as heating, cooking and production of electricity. Last two decades natural gas consumption rate has been increasing exponentially in all over the world. As a result, day by day energy Provider Company gets pressure to supply safe and reliable distribution from the point of source to the specific consumer. Any kind of pipeline failure may cause catastrophic disaster i.e. human casualties, financial penalty, delay of manufacturing goods production and environmental pollution. Subsequently with help of Rough Analytic Hierarchy Process (Rough-AHP) the energy providers can analyze failure rank order according to the importance. In addition Rough-Decision making and Evaluation Laboratory (Rough DEMATEL) methods can analyze the cause-effect relation among gas pipeline failure criteria. Therefore, the energy supplier company can take necessary action plan and reduce the potential pipeline failure risk. As well as, company can estimate the budget for maintenance program based on priority.