Risk aware net load balancing in micro grids with high DER penetration

摘要

The rapid transformation of micro grids due to the accelerated integration of renewables, storage systems and IoT enabled monitoring and control has opened up new opportunities as well as challenges. Future micro grids will be characterized by high DER penetration and will require sophisticated net load balancing frameworks which explicitly consider the errors in prediction of load and generation due to uncertainty in weather conditions while making decisions. Traditional techniques for grid net load management which rely on isolated shaping of load and supply curves are inadequate and inefficient. For micro grids with high PV penetration, the intermittent and unpredictable nature of PV based energy generation can lead to dramatic and sudden supply demand imbalances thus requiring a holistic framework for balancing net load over the entire horizon. In this paper, we develop a sequential decision making framework for net load management that optimally balances the usage of storage and energy market transactions as a mechanism for mitigating supply demand imbalances (net load imbalances) over the horizon. Our framework specifically accounts for prediction uncertainty of future net load imbalances and minimizes the tail end risk of storage shortfall at the end of the horizon. Using qualitative analysis, we show that our framework achieves its objective of minimum cost net load balancing while accounting for the tail end risk.