Further results on the probability theory of capacity value of additional generation

摘要

New theoretical results regarding the capacity value of additional generation are presented, the motivation being explanation of results from applied renewables integration studies. Of particular note are the dependence of calculated values on underlying risk level for any capacity of additional generation, the upper limit on capacity value where there is a given probability of near-zero available capacity, and a closed form result for the case where the distribution of available existing capacity may be approximated as an exponential function. Examples of how these main results may be applied are presented.