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Exploring agent-based simulations in political science using Aggregate Temporal Graphs

机译:使用聚合时间图探索政治科学中基于主体的模拟

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Agent-based simulation has become a key technique for modeling and simulating dynamic, complicated behaviors in social and behavioral sciences. As these simulations become more complex, they generate an increasingly large amount of data. Lacking the appropriate tools and support, it has become difficult for social scientists to interpret and analyze the results of these simulations. In this paper, we introduce the Aggregate Temporal Graph (ATG), a graph formulation that can be used to capture complex relationships between discrete simulation states in time. Using this formulation, we can assist social scientists in identifying critical simulation states by examining graph substructures. In particular, we define the concept of a Gateway and its inverse, a Terminal, which capture the relationships between pivotal states in the simulation and their inevitable outcomes. We propose two real-time computable algorithms to identify these relationships and provide a proof of correctness, complexity analysis, and empirical run-time analysis. We demonstrate the use of these algorithms on a large-scale social science simulation of political power and violence in present-day Thailand, and discuss broader applications of the ATG and associated algorithms in other domains such as analytic provenance.
机译:基于代理的仿真已成为在社会和行为科学中建模和仿真动态,复杂行为的关键技术。随着这些模拟变得越来越复杂,它们会生成越来越多的数据。缺乏适当的工具和支持,社会科学家很难解释和分析这些模拟的结果。在本文中,我们介绍了聚合时间图(ATG),这是一种可用于捕获时间离散仿真状态之间复杂关系的图形表示。使用这种表述,我们可以通过检查图形子结构来帮助社会科学家确定关键的仿真状态。特别是,我们定义了网关及其反向终端的概念,这些终端捕获了模拟中关键状态与其不可避免的结果之间的关系。我们提出了两种实时可计算算法来识别这些关系,并提供正确性,复杂性分析和经验运行时分析的证明。我们演示了在当今泰国对政治权力和暴力进行的大规模社会科学模拟中使用这些算法的情况,并讨论了ATG和相关算法在其他领域(如分析出处)的更广泛应用。

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